Saudi Arabia is set to face a fiscal deficit of 3.6 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, as outlined in the Finance Ministry’s pre-budget statement. The government has projected total expenditures to reach 1.39 trillion Saudi riyals ($370.21 billion), while revenues are anticipated at 1.20 trillion riyals. This budget framework aims to balance financing development priorities with maintaining long-term fiscal sustainability.
Looking further into the future, Saudi Arabia expects its revenues to increase to 1.351 trillion riyals by 2029, with expenditures projected to rise to 1.544 trillion riyals. The Kingdom credits its economic reforms under Vision 2030 for diversifying the economy, enhancing the business environment, and boosting the private sector’s contribution to economic growth.
The growth of non-oil revenues has been significant, climbing from 166 billion riyals in 2015 to a projected 505 billion riyals by 2025. In the first half of 2026, non-oil activities grew by 1.8 percent, contributing 57.3 percent to the GDP. However, the Kingdom’s preliminary estimates suggest a contraction in real GDP by 3.6 percent in 2026, mainly due to a projected 21.8 percent decline in oil-sector activity. Despite this, non-oil activities are expected to grow by 3.2 percent, partially offsetting the downturn in the oil sector.
For 2027, the Finance Ministry is optimistic, projecting real GDP growth of 12.8 percent. Inflation is anticipated to remain stable, averaging around 1.9 percent annually from 2027 to 2029. Saudi Arabia also plans to continue its borrowing strategy through domestic and international markets in 2027, utilizing bonds, sukuk, loans, as well as project and infrastructure financing.
The government’s fiscal strategy is designed to support economic growth, maintain financial stability, and ensure flexibility to respond to global economic and geopolitical changes, all while advancing the goals set out in Vision 2030.